Development and validation of prognostic nomogram for lung cancer patients below the age of 45 years

  • Lili Dai Department of Medicine, Funan County People’s Hospital, Anhui, China https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0862-3435
  • Wei Wang Department of Respiratory Medicine, Funan County People’s Hospital, Anhui, China
  • Qi Liu Department of Endocrinology, Punan Hospital of Pudong District, Shanghai, China https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1054-9385
  • Tongjia Xia Department of Endocrinology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Anhui, China https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4321-6819
  • Qikui Wang Department of Chest Surgery, Anhui Chest Hospital, Anhui, China
  • Qingqing Chen Department of Tuberculosis, Anhui Chest Hospital, Anhui, China
  • Ning Zhu Department of Respiratory Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, Jiangsu China
  • Yu Cheng Department of Interventional Aulmonary and Endoscopy Center, Anhui Chest Hospital, Anhui, China
  • Ying Yan Department of Oncology, Anhui Cancer Hospital, Anhui, China
  • Jun Shu Department of Respiratory Medicine, The Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Anhui, China
  • Kaixin Qu Department of Respiratory Medicine, Funan County People’s Hospital, Anhui, China
Keywords: Early-onset lung cancer, prognostic nomogram, overall survival, cancer-specific survival, SEER

Abstract

This study aimed to establish a nomogram for the prognostic prediction of patients with early-onset lung cancer (EOLC) in both overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). We retrieved EOLC patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and further divided them into training and validation sets randomly. The prognostic nomogram for predicting 3-, 5- and 10-years OS and CSS was established based on the relative clinical variables determined by the multivariate Cox analysis results. Furthermore, the predictive performance of the nomogram was assessed by concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) curve. A total of 1,822 EOLC patients were selected and randomized into a training cohort (1,275, 70%) and a validation cohort (547, 30%). The nomograms were established based on the statistical results of Cox analysis. In training set, the C-indexes for OS and CSS prediction were 0.797 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.773-0.818) and 0.794 (95%CI:0.771-0.816). Significant agreement in the calibration curves was noticed in the nomogram models. The results of ROC and DCA indicated nomograms possessed better predict performance compared with TNM-stage and SEER-stage. Furthermore, the areas under the curve (AUC) of the nomogram for OS and CSS prediction in ROC analysis were 0.766 (95%CI:0.745-0.787) and 0.782 (95%CI:0.760-0.804) respectively. In conclusion, the prognostic nomogram provided an accurate prediction of 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS and CSS of EOLC patients which contributed clinicians to optimize individualized treatment plans. 

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Development and validation of prognostic nomogram for lung cancer patients below the age of 45 years
Published
2020-10-14
How to Cite
1.
Dai L, Wang W, Liu Q, Xia T, Wang Q, Chen Q, Zhu N, Cheng Y, Yan Y, Shu J, Qu K. Development and validation of prognostic nomogram for lung cancer patients below the age of 45 years. Bosn J of Basic Med Sci [Internet]. 2020Oct.14 [cited 2020Nov.27];. Available from: https://www.bjbms.org/ojs/index.php/bjbms/article/view/5079
Section
Translational and Clinical Research