Trends of incidence and prognosis of upper tract urothelial carcinoma

  • Jianping Wu Department of Urology, Affiliated Zhongda Hospital of Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu province, China
  • Shuqiu Chen Department of Urology, Affiliated Zhongda Hospital of Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu province, China
  • Xiaoli Wu Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Affiliated Nanjing Maternity and Child Health Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu province, China
  • Weipu Mao Department of Urology, Affiliated Zhongda Hospital of Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu province, China; Surgical Research Center, Institute of Urology, Southeast University Medical School, Nanjing, China; Department of Urology, Nanjing Lishui District People's Hospital, Zhongda Hospital Lishui Branch, Southeast University, Nanjing, China https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2455-4396
  • Yali Wang Department of Urology, Affiliated Zhongda Hospital of Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu province, China
  • Bin Xu Department of Urology, Affiliated Zhongda Hospital of Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu province, China; Surgical Research Center, Institute of Urology, Southeast University Medical School, Nanjing, China; Department of Urology, Nanjing Lishui District People's Hospital, Zhongda Hospital Lishui Branch, Southeast University, Nanjing, China
  • Donghui Zheng Department of Nephrology, Affiliated Huai'an Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, Huai'an, Jiangsu province, China
  • Ming Chen Department of Urology, Affiliated Zhongda Hospital of Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu province, China; Surgical Research Center, Institute of Urology, Southeast University Medical School, Nanjing, China; Department of Urology, Nanjing Lishui District People's Hospital, Zhongda Hospital Lishui Branch, Southeast University, Nanjing, China
Keywords: Upper tract urothelial carcinoma, incidence, prognostic nomogram, survival outcome, SEER

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to investigate trends in the incidence of upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) in patients and to establish a reliable and practical nomogram based on significant clinical factors to predict the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of UTUC patients. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was used to extract data on UTUC patients between 1988 and 2015. Incidence was calculated using Joinpoint regression software, and trends were quantified by annual percentage change (APC). A nomogram was constructed using R software to predict the OS and CSS probabilities for individual patients. From 1988 to 2015, the incidence of UTUC showed a downward trend (1988: 1.57/100,000 to 2015: 1.51/100,000; APC=-0.1). After stratification according to sex, age and primary site, we found that the incidences of UTUC in males, patients 70+ years old and the renal pelvis were higher than those in females, patients <70 years old and ureter cancer patients. In the training cohort, the nomogram established based on multivariate Cox regression results showed better OS and CSS accuracy (OS: C-index=0.701, AUC=0.736; CSS: C-index=0.729, and AUC=0.688) than SEER stage. In addition, the calibration curves showed good consistency between the predicted and actual 3-, 5- and 10-year OS and CSS rates of the nomogram. In the past 30 years, the incidence of UTUC has shown a general downward trend, and the prognostic nomogram we established can provide a personalized risk assessment for the survival of UTUC patients. 

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Author Biographies

Jianping Wu, Department of Urology, Affiliated Zhongda Hospital of Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu province, China

Department of Urology

Shuqiu Chen, Department of Urology, Affiliated Zhongda Hospital of Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu province, China

Department of Urology

Xiaoli Wu, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Affiliated Nanjing Maternity and Child Health Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu province, China

Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology

Weipu Mao, Department of Urology, Affiliated Zhongda Hospital of Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu province, China; Surgical Research Center, Institute of Urology, Southeast University Medical School, Nanjing, China; Department of Urology, Nanjing Lishui District People's Hospital, Zhongda Hospital Lishui Branch, Southeast University, Nanjing, China

Department of Urology, Affiliated Zhongda Hospital of Southeast University; Surgical Research Center, Institute of Urology, Southeast University Medical School; Department of Urology, Nanjing Lishui District People's Hospital, Zhongda Hospital Lishui Branch, Southeast University

Yali Wang, Department of Urology, Affiliated Zhongda Hospital of Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu province, China

Department of Urology

Bin Xu, Department of Urology, Affiliated Zhongda Hospital of Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu province, China; Surgical Research Center, Institute of Urology, Southeast University Medical School, Nanjing, China; Department of Urology, Nanjing Lishui District People's Hospital, Zhongda Hospital Lishui Branch, Southeast University, Nanjing, China

Department of Urology, Affiliated Zhongda Hospital of Southeast University; Surgical Research Center, Institute of Urology, Southeast University Medical School; Department of Urology, Nanjing Lishui District People's Hospital, Zhongda Hospital Lishui Branch, Southeast University

Donghui Zheng, Department of Nephrology, Affiliated Huai'an Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, Huai'an, Jiangsu province, China

Department of Nephrology

Ming Chen, Department of Urology, Affiliated Zhongda Hospital of Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu province, China; Surgical Research Center, Institute of Urology, Southeast University Medical School, Nanjing, China; Department of Urology, Nanjing Lishui District People's Hospital, Zhongda Hospital Lishui Branch, Southeast University, Nanjing, China

Department of Urology, Affiliated Zhongda Hospital of Southeast University; Surgical Research Center, Institute of Urology, Southeast University Medical School; Department of Urology, Nanjing Lishui District People's Hospital, Zhongda Hospital Lishui Branch, Southeast University

Trends of incidence and prognosis of upper tract urothelial carcinoma
Published
2020-12-18
How to Cite
1.
Wu J, Chen S, Wu X, Mao W, Wang Y, Xu B, Zheng D, Chen M. Trends of incidence and prognosis of upper tract urothelial carcinoma. Bosn J of Basic Med Sci [Internet]. 2020Dec.18 [cited 2021Apr.18];. Available from: https://www.bjbms.org/ojs/index.php/bjbms/article/view/5345
Section
Translational and Clinical Research

Funding data