Construction and verification of prognostic nomogram for early-onset esophageal cancer

nomogram for early onset esophageal cancer

  • Xiaoxiao Liu Department of Radiation Oncology, Xi'an Jiaotong University Second Affiliated Hospital, Shaanxi, China https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5582-9084
  • Wei Guo Department of Radiation Oncology, Xi'an Jiaotong University Second Affiliated Hospital, Shaanxi, China
  • Xiaobo Shi Department of Radiation Oncology, Xi'an Jiaotong University Second Affiliated Hospital, Shaanxi, China https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0391-5076
  • Yue Ke Department of Radiation Oncology, Xi'an Jiaotong University Second Affiliated Hospital, Shaanxi, China https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5900-1732
  • Yuxing Li Department of Radiation Oncology, Xi'an Jiaotong University Second Affiliated Hospital, Shaanxi, China https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9906-0198
  • Shupei Pan Department of Radiation Oncology, Xi'an Jiaotong University Second Affiliated Hospital, Shaanxi, China
  • Yingying Jin Department of Radiation Oncology, Xi'an Jiaotong University Second Affiliated Hospital, Shaanxi, China
  • Yuchen Wang Department of Radiation Oncology, Xi'an Jiaotong University Second Affiliated Hospital, Shaanxi, China https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7882-1058
  • Qinli Ruan Department of Radiation Oncology, Xi'an Jiaotong University Second Affiliated Hospital, Shaanxi, China
  • Hongbing Ma Department of Radiation Oncology, Xi'an Jiaotong University Second Affiliated Hospital, Shaanxi, China https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6957-5222
Keywords: Early-onset esophageal cancer (EOEC), nomogram, overall survival (OS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)

Abstract

This study aimed to build up nomogram models to evaluate overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in early-onset esophageal cancer (EOEC). Patients diagnosed with esophageal cancer (EC) from 2004 to 2015 were extracted from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Clinicopathological characteristics of younger versus older patients were compared, and survival analysis was performed in both groups. Independent related factors influencing the prognosis of EOEC were identified by univariate and multivariate Cox analysis, which were incorporated to construct a nomogram. The predictive capability of the nomogram was estimated by the concordance index (C-index), calibration plot, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). A total of 534 younger and 17,243 older patients were available from the SEER database. Younger patients were randomly segmented into a training set (n = 266) and a validation set (n = 268). In terms of the training set, the C-index of the OS nomogram was 0.740 (95% CI: 0.707-0.773), and that of the CSS nomogram was 0.752 (95% CI: 0.719-0.785). In view of the validation set, the C-index of OS and CSS were 0.706 (95% CI: 0.671-0.741) and 0.723 (95% CI: 0.690-0.756), respectively. Calibration curves demonstrated the consistent degree of fit between actual and predicted values in nomogram models. From the perspective of DCA, the nomogram models were more beneficial than the tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) and the SEER stage for EOEC. In brief, the nomogram model can be considered as an individualized quantitative tool to predict the prognosis of EOEC patients to assist clinicians in making treatment decisions.

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Construction and verification of prognostic nomogram for early-onset esophageal cancer
Published
2021-03-22
How to Cite
1.
Liu X, Guo W, Shi X, Ke Y, Li Y, Pan S, Jin Y, Wang Y, Ruan Q, Ma H. Construction and verification of prognostic nomogram for early-onset esophageal cancer: nomogram for early onset esophageal cancer. Bosn J of Basic Med Sci [Internet]. 2021Mar.22 [cited 2021Apr.19];. Available from: https://www.bjbms.org/ojs/index.php/bjbms/article/view/5533
Section
Translational and Clinical Research

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